Coffee prices going up, inventories depleted (Barron's magzine article)

[neglid]

Coffee Prices Could Hit a New High - Barrons.com


if the link is dead on arrival, just search: Barron's magazine coffee article



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[neglid]

Sorry, you will have to search from your browser. The link does not open when copy and paste is used (it wants you to buy a trial subscription.

 

[wmark]

Relief in sight ?

Numerous analysts and commodity traders expect coffee to lose up to 13% of its price over the first 2 quarters of 2012.

Since June 2010 the prices on Arabica (the most popular coffee) have gained 50% as the result of poor harvests in Colombia and Brazil, which led to shorter supplies.
Ricardo Villanueva, President of Guatemala’s National Coffee Association, assumes that coffee prices will remain high till March-April 2012. That is why he says that it is better for coffee producers to start selling coffee right now.

 

[goldofcroesus]

If prices really are going up, thought I'd make a quick plug for my friends who are offering a good discount on their coffee site.

They're launching a curated online marketplace called Midtown Row in a few weeks, and they're offering $10 credit if you sign-up (Midtown Row - Coming Soon). They'll be selling whole beans and grounds from SF roasters like Ritual, Philz, Barefoot, and a few others.

 

[wmark]

I keep reading that emerging markets will comprise the bulk of the growth in coffee consumption BUT emerging markets will be hard hit by the Euro crisis as Europe buys less and extends less credit. Brazil is amongst those with a large amount of European credit.

I mean if you believe the experts, golf would be the number 1 game by now given the demographic bulge. Unfortunately for those who invested in golf courses that demographic bulge is either not playing golf or not retiring early. I am told there will be a significant wave of golf course bankruptcies.

 

[wmark]

One of the biggest factors in coffee pricing ?

Chinese real estate!

Chinese bonds and equities are flashing warning signs that suggest the booming mainland property sector is heading for a bust – a development that would send shock waves through financial markets worldwide.






Fears are most stark in the international bond markets, where Chinese property developers have sold $19-billion (U.S.) of debt in recent years. Prices of these bonds have plunged by an average 22 cents on the dollar in the past two months alone, causing yields to jump.
“You’re seeing yields now above 20 per cent, which implies significant default risk,” says Owen Gallimore, Asia credit strategist at ANZ. He warns that at least half a dozen developers are in serious danger of defaulting on their bonds