View entire thread: What happened to c market on Monday?
Posted by ElPugDiablo on 2005-08-17 16:28:55 Post Subject: The old Brazilian Forecast trick...
Tokyo Arabica Plunges on Brazil Forecast: World's Biggest Mover
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Arabica coffee futures in Tokyo fell 5.4 percent on higher crop estimates by Brazil, the world's largest producer. The decline was the biggest fluctuation of any commodity today.
Brazil's coffee harvest this year will total 33.3 million bags, up from an April forecast of 32.5 million bags, the country's Agriculture Ministry said. Next year's crop will rise 26 percent to 42 million bags, the ministry said.
``People were expecting output of below 30 million bags this year so there's no longer a sense of tightness in supply,'' said Chen Chaur-Shi, an analyst at commodity futures brokerage Nihon Unicom Corp. in Tokyo. ``Production next year will amply meet market demand.''
Arabica coffee for delivery in July 2006, the most-active contract, fell 950 yen to close at 16,740 yen per 69-kilogram bag, or 33 percent down from a record 24,820 yen reached on March 16. Futures for the milder coffee type favored by specialty roasters including Starbucks Corp. earlier declined as much as 6.7 percent, the biggest percentage fall since July 14, 2003 on the Tokyo Grain Exchange.
Prices had increased before the winter in Brazil on concern frost would damage trees and reduce production in the country which grows about a third of the world's Arabica. The winter weather has been relatively mild and favored the harvest.
Japan is the world's third-largest coffee importer and has about 90,000 coffee and tea shops that sell almost $10 billion of beverages a year.
New York
Coffee futures for December delivery fell 8.65 cents, or 7.9 percent, to close at 100.9 cents a pound on the New York Board of Trade yesterday.
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the exchange in New York reached an eight-month high of 4.579 million bags on July 21. Inventories have been little changed since. As of Aug. 12, inventories stood at 4.467 million bags.
The Tokyo Grain Exchange holds five daily sessions for Arabica coffee futures, where buy and sell orders are matched through an auction.
A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.
The world's biggest movers are based on changes in price or yield and are screened for the size of the market and amount of daily trading.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... yCJopcbQWA
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Posted by ElPugDiablo on 2005-08-17 16:28:55 Post Subject: The old Brazilian Forecast trick...
Tokyo Arabica Plunges on Brazil Forecast: World's Biggest Mover
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Arabica coffee futures in Tokyo fell 5.4 percent on higher crop estimates by Brazil, the world's largest producer. The decline was the biggest fluctuation of any commodity today.
Brazil's coffee harvest this year will total 33.3 million bags, up from an April forecast of 32.5 million bags, the country's Agriculture Ministry said. Next year's crop will rise 26 percent to 42 million bags, the ministry said.
``People were expecting output of below 30 million bags this year so there's no longer a sense of tightness in supply,'' said Chen Chaur-Shi, an analyst at commodity futures brokerage Nihon Unicom Corp. in Tokyo. ``Production next year will amply meet market demand.''
Arabica coffee for delivery in July 2006, the most-active contract, fell 950 yen to close at 16,740 yen per 69-kilogram bag, or 33 percent down from a record 24,820 yen reached on March 16. Futures for the milder coffee type favored by specialty roasters including Starbucks Corp. earlier declined as much as 6.7 percent, the biggest percentage fall since July 14, 2003 on the Tokyo Grain Exchange.
Prices had increased before the winter in Brazil on concern frost would damage trees and reduce production in the country which grows about a third of the world's Arabica. The winter weather has been relatively mild and favored the harvest.
Japan is the world's third-largest coffee importer and has about 90,000 coffee and tea shops that sell almost $10 billion of beverages a year.
New York
Coffee futures for December delivery fell 8.65 cents, or 7.9 percent, to close at 100.9 cents a pound on the New York Board of Trade yesterday.
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the exchange in New York reached an eight-month high of 4.579 million bags on July 21. Inventories have been little changed since. As of Aug. 12, inventories stood at 4.467 million bags.
The Tokyo Grain Exchange holds five daily sessions for Arabica coffee futures, where buy and sell orders are matched through an auction.
A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.
The world's biggest movers are based on changes in price or yield and are screened for the size of the market and amount of daily trading.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... yCJopcbQWA
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View entire thread: Hi! I'm new =)
Posted by ElPugDiablo on 2005-02-21 14:50:45 Post Subject:
1) Are you going to move to China? If not don't do it.
2) How connected are you or your partners? If not, are you willing to grease multiple palms?
3) Where in China? If in Shanghai/Shenzheng/Beijing have you look into rent? Two years ago prime location in Shanghai was as high as U$ 60/sf. Sure, you can offset it somewhat with low labor cost, but you still need to put out U$10,000 per month for 2000 sf. Two years ago there were three Starbucks in Shanghai, and I don't think they were profitable.
4) Are you offering other items beside coffees, pastries? Meaning are you offering food items? I don't think pure coffeehouse concept does well in China. There is a Taiwanese chain with about 200 stores that do well, but they have traditional Chinese and quasi-Western food menu, and coffees were really secondary, not to mention not very good. Come to think of it, their food were so-so too. They are really selling Taiwan/Japan style Western atmosphere.
5) Foreign operators that are making piles over there, are KFC, Pizza Hut, McDonald with name recognition and beaucoup bucks. They are not selling quality stuffs, what they are selling is the perceived piece of Americana. I know of of one group of Chinese Americans with similar idea, but their concept is more like the Taiwanese group mentioned above. They have a every American name trademarked, New York Coffee??? But they know jack about coffee. That does not mean I think they will fail, it just that they are not selling good coffee. One thing they are pretty smart about is that they will start in smaller secondary market where cost of doing business is cheaper.
Someone once asked Richard Branson what is the secret of be coming a millionair, he replied "start out with a billion, and start an airline". So...if you still want to be a millionair, I can find out (green or roasted??) coffee beans laws for you. My sister-in-law works for an American commodity firm in Shanghai that brings and sells all type of argri-commodities, her sister is a custom broker.
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Posted by ElPugDiablo on 2005-02-21 14:50:45 Post Subject:
1) Are you going to move to China? If not don't do it.
2) How connected are you or your partners? If not, are you willing to grease multiple palms?
3) Where in China? If in Shanghai/Shenzheng/Beijing have you look into rent? Two years ago prime location in Shanghai was as high as U$ 60/sf. Sure, you can offset it somewhat with low labor cost, but you still need to put out U$10,000 per month for 2000 sf. Two years ago there were three Starbucks in Shanghai, and I don't think they were profitable.
4) Are you offering other items beside coffees, pastries? Meaning are you offering food items? I don't think pure coffeehouse concept does well in China. There is a Taiwanese chain with about 200 stores that do well, but they have traditional Chinese and quasi-Western food menu, and coffees were really secondary, not to mention not very good. Come to think of it, their food were so-so too. They are really selling Taiwan/Japan style Western atmosphere.
5) Foreign operators that are making piles over there, are KFC, Pizza Hut, McDonald with name recognition and beaucoup bucks. They are not selling quality stuffs, what they are selling is the perceived piece of Americana. I know of of one group of Chinese Americans with similar idea, but their concept is more like the Taiwanese group mentioned above. They have a every American name trademarked, New York Coffee??? But they know jack about coffee. That does not mean I think they will fail, it just that they are not selling good coffee. One thing they are pretty smart about is that they will start in smaller secondary market where cost of doing business is cheaper.
Someone once asked Richard Branson what is the secret of be coming a millionair, he replied "start out with a billion, and start an airline". So...if you still want to be a millionair, I can find out (green or roasted??) coffee beans laws for you. My sister-in-law works for an American commodity firm in Shanghai that brings and sells all type of argri-commodities, her sister is a custom broker.
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