Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 19
  1. #1
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    Virginia, USA
    Posts
    102

    Need Advise: Trying to Forecast Roasting Business Sales for the First Three Years

    Hello, good folks.

    I'll be sallying forth with a new full-on roastery this autumn after some time spent working as a barista several years ago and avid home roasting over the past year. I've lived in Ireland for the past 4+ years, but I'll be moving back home to the USA in about six months.

    I'm drawing up my business plan as we speak, and of course the financial projections present the biggest challenge. I'm hoping at least a few of you who have been in the biz for a few years can give me an idea of what you did in sales for years one through three. I fully realize there are a multitude of factors that make it anything but a "one size fits all" scenario, but I'd feel fairly confident that I could arrive at some ballpark projections if I could see what you experienced in terms of sales over the first three years.

    Thanks!

    ~ Ryan
    Last edited by PinkRose; 02-19-2015 at 04:43 AM. Reason: Title edit

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    Virginia, USA
    Posts
    102
    Anyone? I should have stated in my original post that if you don't feel comfortable putting those figures out here on a public comment, please send me a private message here.

    Here is what I have projected based on the advice of one person I know who has run his own café:

    Year One Sales: $40,000
    Year Two Sales: $70,000
    Year Three Sales: $95,000
    Year Four Sales: $130,000
    Year Five Sales: $175,000

    Now, as I said above, I fully realize there are a host of factors and variables that make every situation different. But that's why I need a bit of guidance from those of you who have been in the roasting biz for a few years. Are these figures reasonable? Too high? Too low?

  3. #3
    Super Moderator
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Near Philadelphia, PA
    Posts
    4,714
    Hello "Breifne" (Ryan),

    Welcome to the Coffee Forums website.

    I edited the title of this thread to help get people's attention.

    We have a lot of people on this Forum who have roasting businesses. As you will soon find out for yourself, they are very busy people! They visit the Forum and participate when they have time. I'm sure you'll get a response to your questions soon.

    Rose

  4. #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    Virginia, USA
    Posts
    102
    Thanks, Rose!

  5. #5
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Salt Lake City
    Posts
    1,044
    One thing I would factor in is knowing is potential accounts that fit your positioning and/or philosophy, who currently has those accounts, and what can you provide in terms of quality and service that their current roaster cannot. This is all part of - based on market size, what is my potential for growth in this town, city, state, etc.

    I would think if you are targeting a particular place in the US, then you should be familiar with what is there now and already have a strong belief that you can provide something better.
    John Piquet
    caffe d'bolla
    Salt Lake City, UT
    caffedbolla.com

  6. #6
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Milwaukee, WI
    Posts
    1,151
    It may be business-owning members are busy; I'd guess it's more that they realize there is no direct correlation between what they did and what the OP should expect to do. Absolutely none.

  7. #7
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    Virginia, USA
    Posts
    102
    Quote Originally Posted by peterjschmidt View Post
    It may be business-owning members are busy; I'd guess it's more that they realize there is no direct correlation between what they did and what the OP should expect to do. Absolutely none.
    With respect, Peter, I'd feel confident about a *BALLPARK PROJECTION* if I had several examples of what roasting businesses had done. Does it mean my ballpark projection would be spot-on? Of course not. But it certainly would help me determine if the numbers my friend gave me are on the right track.

  8. #8
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    145
    Are you citing those numbers as revenues or gross profits?
    Where are you planning on starting this business?

    Quote Originally Posted by Breifne View Post
    Anyone? I should have stated in my original post that if you don't feel comfortable putting those figures out here on a public comment, please send me a private message here.

    Here is what I have projected based on the advice of one person I know who has run his own café:

    Year One Sales: $40,000
    Year Two Sales: $70,000
    Year Three Sales: $95,000
    Year Four Sales: $130,000
    Year Five Sales: $175,000

    Now, as I said above, I fully realize there are a host of factors and variables that make every situation different. But that's why I need a bit of guidance from those of you who have been in the roasting biz for a few years. Are these figures reasonable? Too high? Too low?

  9. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Location
    Virginia, USA
    Posts
    102
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnD18 View Post
    Are you citing those numbers as revenues or gross profits?
    Where are you planning on starting this business?
    Hi, John.

    Those numbers represent projected revenues, not gross profits.

    The business will be located in Virginia.

  10. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    145
    I am going through the same process you are, but in NY, and according to most of my research in my own market, those numbers, as revenues, are low. Here's how I see it:

    The average café (busy, but average) will go through about 90-100 lbs of coffee/week. So lets use 95 lbs a week or roughly 380 lbs/mo.
    Depending on your coffee (assuming its delicious) and your customers, it will sell for anywhere between $8- $13/lb. Lets use 10.50 as an average.

    10.50 x 380 = 3990/mo in revenue.
    3990 x 12 = 47880/yr in revenue.
    Expect the GPs to be at least 50% of that.

    So, if you aim for at least one average café as a customer for the first year, I'd say you could easily meet your $40,000 revenue goal. Assuming you hold on to your accounts.
    There are also other sales channels which you should pursue other than the obvious café.


    BTW if any veteran roasters out there see a flaw in this please correct it as I am still in start-up mode as well.

 

 
Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast

Remove Ads

Sponsored Links

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Similar Threads

  1. Happy New Year
    By PinkRose in forum Coffee Table
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 01-04-2016, 05:58 PM
  2. ONCE A YEAR 50% OFF EVERYTHING SALE for Labor Day!
    By coffeeroastersclub in forum Business to Business B2B
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 08-28-2014, 08:22 AM
  3. PR: PT's Coffee is Roaster of the Year
    By cafemakers in forum Business to Business B2B
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-22-2008, 02:13 AM
  4. First year losses?
    By villagejoe in forum Coffee Shops, Espresso Bars & Cafes
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 09-04-2008, 06:37 AM
  5. no one has posted in over a year??
    By watersole in forum Coffee Industry Forum
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11-09-2004, 04:25 PM

Search tags for this page

content
,

sales

Click on a term to search for related topics.