Need Advise: Trying to Forecast Roasting Business Sales for the First Three Years

[7over]

John,
Those sales were primarily through our website with the rest done at the farmer's market. That first year our revenue from the one farmers market we were at was probably in the neighborhood of $30,000 to $40,000. (I don't have the actual numbers in front of me so that's a bit of a guess through the fog of time!)
We are a roaster only and other than what we did at the farmers market, we do not have a café.

Just curious, when you say nearly 100% was sold to individual customers, what was that through. Internet sales? Farmers markets? Are you strictly a wholesaler or do you have a cafe as well?

 

[Breifne]

This is most helpful feedback. Thanks, everyone. Any other veteran roasters who would like to add their own experiences, please do.

 

[7over]

.... The average café (busy, but average) will go through about 90-100 lbs of coffee/week. So lets use 95 lbs a week or roughly 380 lbs/mo.
Depending on your coffee (assuming its delicious) and your customers, it will sell for anywhere between $8- $13/lb. Lets use 10.50 as an average.

10.50 x 380 = 3990/mo in revenue.
3990 x 12 = 47880/yr in revenue.
Expect the GPs to be at least 50% of that.

...

John,
The breakdown above seems to be based on selling pounds of roasted coffee beans rather than brewed coffee drinks. That might be more appropriate for a small roasting plant than a café that serves drinks.
I think you're right that an average café would use 90 to 100 lb. of coffee per week. (A busy cafe will go through 150 to 200 lbs per week). But at least 80% of those 100 pounds are going to be used to brew drinks, not sell as beans. You'd need to figure how many cups of brewed coffee drinks (and espresso drinks) you're going to sell and what percentage will be 12 oz, 16 oz and 20 oz and what your'e going to charge for each. Then there is cost of milk and cups and lids and sleeves and sweetener etc. (and all the other costs that go with running a retail operation)
If you are intending on opening a retail café that serves coffee based drinks, you will get a great education by attending a Coffee Fest event and sitting in on the seminar presented by Wes Herman of Woods Café. You will learn much of what you need to know to establish a very successful coffee business.

 

[JohnD18]

The numbers I cited above were meant to be viewed from the perspective of a roaster who sells beans to cafes, restaurants, etc. Not from the perspective of the cafe selling retail to customers over the counter.

I am glad to see that you agree with the numbers of ~90 - 100lbs per weeks for an average (good) cafe, though. Thanks a lot for all of your input. I have another question for you. As a roaster, what types of brewed coffee did you sell at farmers markets? Also, where are you located?

John,
The breakdown above seems to be based on selling pounds of roasted coffee beans rather than brewed coffee drinks. That might be more appropriate for a small roasting plant than a café that serves drinks.
I think you're right that an average café would use 90 to 100 lb. of coffee per week. (A busy cafe will go through 150 to 200 lbs per week). But at least 80% of those 100 pounds are going to be used to brew drinks, not sell as beans. You'd need to figure how many cups of brewed coffee drinks (and espresso drinks) you're going to sell and what percentage will be 12 oz, 16 oz and 20 oz and what your'e going to charge for each. Then there is cost of milk and cups and lids and sleeves and sweetener etc. (and all the other costs that go with running a retail operation)
If you are intending on opening a retail café that serves coffee based drinks, you will get a great education by attending a Coffee Fest event and sitting in on the seminar presented by Wes Herman of Woods Café. You will learn much of what you need to know to establish a very successful coffee business.