Grrr...C market

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GreenDude

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Feb 14, 2008
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Los Angeles, CA
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Closing @ $ 1.62, well, its been 10 years or so since the last great jump. I heard Brazil is having bad weather too, wonder if that is true....
 

Carmine Domenaco

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Oct 10, 2007
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Brasil isn't having bad weather and this spike is being driven by a few factors that are largely unrelated to supply, however Vietnam is hording some of it's stock which is causing some of the increase.

Most traditional traders are indicating that nearly 80% of the March and May contracts are being held by non-coffee people. Hedge funds, commodity traders and people seeking refuge from an uncertain stock market. A weak dollar is creating a natural increase as most currencies are up 20-35% against the dollar over the past 12 months.

Word is that the price spike is not fundamentally based on a true lack of supply and will likely show a downward correction as new supplies enter the market. There are a few traders who seem to think we are in for the emerald spike, but the majority think it will hover above 1.50 for another week or so then retrace back to the 135-140 range.

At any rate, it is a challenging time to source coffees. Farmers who are due to ship coffees that were contracted when the market was low are suddenly coming up "short" and unable to honor the contracts that were fixed last year. Relationships are strained when the market jumps a lot in a month.

The final point in this wordy post is this: The C was waaaay to low for too long. I pity the roaster who entered the market when it was at a dollar and expected it to stay low. The correction has been a long time coming and it will be some time before it drops below 1.20 again.
 
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GreenDude

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Carmine, thanks for the informative reply :D I knew the non-coffee people had something to do with this, however I was unaware of the effect of the weak dollar...very interesting!

Ive adjusted most of my pricing as of late, I just hope I get my coffee, lol!

Thanks again
 
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