Tokyo Arabica Plunges on Brazil Forecast: World's Biggest Mover
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Arabica coffee futures in Tokyo fell 5.4 percent on higher crop estimates by Brazil, the world's largest producer. The decline was the biggest fluctuation of any commodity today.
Brazil's coffee harvest this year will total 33.3 million bags, up from an April forecast of 32.5 million bags, the country's Agriculture Ministry said. Next year's crop will rise 26 percent to 42 million bags, the ministry said.
``People were expecting output of below 30 million bags this year so there's no longer a sense of tightness in supply,'' said Chen Chaur-Shi, an analyst at commodity futures brokerage Nihon Unicom Corp. in Tokyo. ``Production next year will amply meet market demand.''
Arabica coffee for delivery in July 2006, the most-active contract, fell 950 yen to close at 16,740 yen per 69-kilogram bag, or 33 percent down from a record 24,820 yen reached on March 16. Futures for the milder coffee type favored by specialty roasters including Starbucks Corp. earlier declined as much as 6.7 percent, the biggest percentage fall since July 14, 2003 on the Tokyo Grain Exchange.
Prices had increased before the winter in Brazil on concern frost would damage trees and reduce production in the country which grows about a third of the world's Arabica. The winter weather has been relatively mild and favored the harvest.
Japan is the world's third-largest coffee importer and has about 90,000 coffee and tea shops that sell almost $10 billion of beverages a year.
Coffee futures for December delivery fell 8.65 cents, or 7.9 percent, to close at 100.9 cents a pound on the New York Board of Trade yesterday.
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the exchange in New York reached an eight-month high of 4.579 million bags on July 21. Inventories have been little changed since. As of Aug. 12, inventories stood at 4.467 million bags.
The Tokyo Grain Exchange holds five daily sessions for Arabica coffee futures, where buy and sell orders are matched through an auction.
A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date.
The world's biggest movers are based on changes in price or yield and are screened for the size of the market and amount of daily trading.
The cool part is that Japan imports a huge amount of their coffee already roasted. There aren't a lot of roasters there, from what I've been told. I'm thinking of starting a roastery franchise company just to meet the demand. I think Japanese people would love the idea of visiting the neighborhood roastery to buy their pound of fresh-roasted. It would be most honorable for my ancestors.