Traffic Count & Average Sales?

Mocha Psyc

New member
Feb 18, 2006
Over the Rainbow
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Watching two new coffee shops open here in town has me thinking; just exactly what am I missing?

The two new stores could not be more different. One is a brand new drive through only (Java Joes) on a street that has a 46k traffic count BUT also has 4 other coffee houses on the same street within a 2 mile radius.

The second is a free standing location (Janus Coffee House), also with a drive window but a storefront as well, that's on the PM side of a street that likely on draws 4k a day. This store is located just down the street from a Starbucks which is inside a Target Super Center. This is a BIG BUCKS store too - I'm thinking $250k minimum to open.

All of this in a town with a population of 164,000 (but growing VERY fast - think boom town here). The two new stores are joining a total of 11 pre-existing coffee shops, bringing the total to 13! And then there's me and my plan to open another location. Assuming I succeed, we're now at 14 coffee shops!

OK, so here's my real question. I have a spreadsheet that gives me profitability based on several factors. Two of which are customer count and average ticket price. The customer count is driven off of traffic count - so I'm comfortable with that number. But average sale has me confused.

My assumptions are based on what I spend when I go in a coffee shop - around $4.25. But what is the "real" average?

I was in a shop last week and I rang out at about $5.50 since my wife was with me, a second customer had a $14 ticket, and a third was at $1.50. So, this suggests an average of $7 a customer. But - since I had my wife with me do we count her as a customer? If so, that brings the customer count to 4 and decreases the average sale to $5.25. Still a good number - but is it substainable? What say you?